1. The teaching is good in our new state-of-the-art college building at Fort Leavenworth. Everyday as I walk to the new building I go past the old building which is being demolished. I’ve been watching the wrecking ball taking apart beautiful building and I can’t help but noticing how quickly the heavy ball takes apart […]
Tag: risk
Edge.org: this should be interesting and challenging
Sigh: because i dont have enough on my plate to keep my attention fully engaged. Still, they have some powerful info from one of my heroes, Daniel Kahneman whose intellect spans the whole globe. “To arrive at the edge of the world’s knowledge, seek out the most complex and sophisticated minds, put them […]
Tactical trading: maxpain strategy in oil pays off within a week
closed our tactical trade in oil, using the 2x leveraged oil ETF (DXO). we bought at $2.20 with a .2 initial stop, after oil closed below $30/barrel, and closed the tactical portion of the trade today at $3.45. Thats a little over a 6R win in a week. here are some of the supporting slides […]
Historical responses to financial meltdowns (buckle up, it will be a bumpy ride)
Reinhart and Rogoff (2008b), in a recent paper entitled “The Aftermath of Financial Crises.”, demonstrate that banking crises in rich countries and emerging markets have a surprising amount in common. “… Broadly speaking, financial crises are protracted affairs. More often than not, the aftermath of severe financial crises share three characteristics. First, asset market collapses are deep […]
Trading Lesson transcript: the importance of self talk
Trading Lesson: 12/30/2008 Summary: a review of some 5DD and 5DDC setups, and an inquiry into self talk ========================================================== The Trader: COP has a nice chart today. Had my eye on it after you put it on your list of 5DD. Got distracted after it went down a 6th day. Should have watched it […]
Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Sector Contrarian
There is a new conventional wisdom beginning to emerge from the stock market these days and it says that there’s no way you can make money in a bear market unless you have the good fortune to be an expert market timer and bet against the recovery of the broad market. While it is true […]
“Paying” for bailouts as if they were taxcuts
I am surprised not to see a suggestion from either side of the aisle, that suggests “bailouts” should be paid for in the same way tax cuts: by identifying dollar-for-dollar tradeoffs. By government standards, the Big 3 bailout is a rather modest sum when you stack it up against the Department of Defense budget. Republicans arguing on principle […]
Market Health Check, Dec 22, 2008
Upgrade from Intensive Care to Critical market has been hammering out a bottom here. The slope of the 50d MA and the 30d Rline have turned positive. Volatility has dramatically reduced. The large candle days in the last 30 have been up not down; the 20 and 50dMAs are coming together. The next “easy” upside […]
End of term pause! yeah!
finished my last paper for the doctorate for this term and have a full 2 weeks off before the next round of torture begins. the good news is that i was really stretched mentally this term, and am really pleased with the progress i am making and the insights i am gathering as part of […]
Efficient markets: Being vs Becoming
There is a world of difference, all you need really, in the difference between these 2 statements: the market IS efficient and the market becomes efficient. It’s the difference between a state of being and a state of becoming (a state of action). A market moving towards efficient price levels is a market in motion, […]