There is a new conventional wisdom beginning to emerge from the stock market these days and it says that there’s no way you can make money in a bear market unless you have the good fortune to be an expert market timer and bet against the recovery of the broad market. While it is true […]
Tag: chaos
Farmers and automakers; remember the crucial difference…
I am trying to appreciate the difference between paying farmers not to grow crops and to prop up their prices with government subsidies and the outrage expressed by conservatives at paying automakers not to make autos (as canada joins the team in shoveling money at the Big 3) This time its different though, because the […]
Market Health Check, Dec 22, 2008
Upgrade from Intensive Care to Critical market has been hammering out a bottom here. The slope of the 50d MA and the 30d Rline have turned positive. Volatility has dramatically reduced. The large candle days in the last 30 have been up not down; the 20 and 50dMAs are coming together. The next “easy” upside […]
Efficient markets: Being vs Becoming
There is a world of difference, all you need really, in the difference between these 2 statements: the market IS efficient and the market becomes efficient. It’s the difference between a state of being and a state of becoming (a state of action). A market moving towards efficient price levels is a market in motion, […]
Ready, Fire, Aim for chaotic markets
this picture and concept map reflects our emerging trading technique for chaotic markets, affectionately called, Ready-Fire-Aim which takes measured action within a framework of understanding, with finetuning for position sizing once we are in the trade and it begins to unfold
Profitable ETF trading strategies: adapting to chaos
When you find yourself in conditions of chaos, you discover that your robust systems are beginning to break down. They no longer perform as designed, simply because the volatility is greater than the system boundaries and feedback mechanisms can account for or moderate. Slack, buffers, filters and boundaries all work to dampen waves of change. […]
Profitable ETF Strategies: Market Valuations
The great Dr Brett Steenbarger writes: Based upon the replacement cost for assets of the S&P 500 companies, the index should be trading around 910 — roughly where it stands now. At historic market lows since 1920, however, indexes have tended to trade closer to somewhat above half their replacement cost. Our market classification tool […]
Markets testing intermediate term low: set up for a low risk trade here
the test of Friday’s low sets up an excellent, low risk short term trade here. We will look at it in the seminar tomorrow as a case study. The volatiltiy has been murderous on investing, and buy-and hold, but has been excellent for short term trading designed to capitalize on chaos and uncertainty