COL John Boyd , USAF was a national treasure. One of the most gifted and effective fighter pilots of all time, he went on to revolutionize the way the armed services thought about command, control and combat effectiveness on the modern chaotic battlefield. He was instrumental in reforming the process by which the Department of […]
Tag: Uncertainty
Reflections on Ray Ison’s work in Systems Thinking in Action Research
Ison, R. (2008). Systems Thinking and Practice for Action Research. In P. Reason & H. Bradbury (Eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Action Research: Participative Inquiry and Practice (Second ed.). London: Sage Publications., Ltd. My masters work is in systems management, and Ison’s work struck a chord with me as well. His mind map of the […]
Profitable ETF Strategies: Market Valuations
The great Dr Brett Steenbarger writes: Based upon the replacement cost for assets of the S&P 500 companies, the index should be trading around 910 — roughly where it stands now. At historic market lows since 1920, however, indexes have tended to trade closer to somewhat above half their replacement cost. Our market classification tool […]
Markets testing intermediate term low: set up for a low risk trade here
the test of Friday’s low sets up an excellent, low risk short term trade here. We will look at it in the seminar tomorrow as a case study. The volatiltiy has been murderous on investing, and buy-and hold, but has been excellent for short term trading designed to capitalize on chaos and uncertainty
Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Appreciating Anchors
The Nobel prize winning work of Kahneman and Tversky featured an extensive examination of the biases we routinely committ which drive our thinking away from the purely rational economic man theorized by traditional economics. One of the more important biases they examined was the phenomenon of anchoring. We anchor when we place a higher value […]
Profitable ETF Trading techniques: Understanding the importance of behavioral finance
We know that people pride themselves on their rationality and analytical skills. This is very evident in traders who invest a lot of psychological energy into their systems and personal discipline. And yet it is also very clear that psychology is extraordinarily evident in financial decisions. Time and again ,psychological pressures will over-rule rational analysis […]
A Pair Trading Strategy refinement: Buffett vs the mob
A pair trade strategy refinement to consider to take advantage of long term market psychology which is known to persist despite evidence that the market is changing. I was thinking of a pair trade earlier today that would capture something like the mood of the mass market psychology in practice. It would pit the wisdom […]
What makes Buffett great: the ability to take disciplined action at moments of great stress
Trim Tabs reports an extraordinary panic selloff by the masses in September, driven by fear. Banks are collapsing left and right. The public is outraged by their ostrich-like elected leaders in the House and Senate and pressure the Congress into aborting a terribly framed corporate welfare/bailout bill. Market volatility, as measured by Average True range […]
Fear of failure? Failure is the state of nature; success is what’s surprising
Why do we fear failure? Why do so many things fail? What can we learn about failure that protects us from the shock of actual failure? Why do we persist as a species knowing the odds are stacked against us so badly in just about anything we do? I have been reading some commentary and […]
5 Essential Qualities For Effective Managers
What does it take to manage a diverse group of creative individuals? An extensive review of management literature produces the following list of management qualities that are essential if you want to build and leverage high performance teams. Without these skills you run the risk of losing your most valuable business asset: the knowledge and energy […]