One of the more neglected topics in trading systems development is the concept of stalking. Traders, particularly early in their career will tend to spend lot of time, if not ll of their time, focusing on the entry, reasoning that if they can get that part right they will have some control over the market’s inevitable follow thru, which must go according to plan, because of the predictive power of their perfect entry technique.
If, as a trader, you are able to survive this philosophical approach to the market, based on certainty, control and predictability, you will move along to other aspects of a complete trading system, like the exits, position sizing, trade management of open positions, portfolio heat, overnight rick management, re-entry and matching system performance to specific market conditions.
These are non-trivial issues in the development of an effective system. Stalking the trade however has to do with the period before the trade is engaged, and offers you opportunities to leverage what may be your greatest edge as an individual trader, if you have discipline and patience to do it properly.
I believe that stalking is intimately and directly connected to your deep understanding of the edge your trading system has. The better you understand your system and your edge, and the market conditions that favor its use, the better position you will be in to stalk effectively.
Think of a pride of hungry lions on the hunt. Their stalking consists of knowing their market (their prey) and where they will inevitably congregate in large numbers (watering holes and grazing lands which represent their trading opportunities). Effective stalking consists of taking advantage of their natural strengths in the market conditions that favor their methods.
Liosn will sniff the air at a hint of a suggestion of the possibility of their prey. They will scan widely and contuously and begin fllowing the scent until they can vector in on their target and begin their hunt in earnest. Their stalking gets them reliably into the right position to begin the hunt. That’s what your stalking must do for you.
Your stalking should include some early warning signs that let you know the market and trade conditions that favr your system are starting to emerge from the market mosaic. You can start posturing yourself for action early enough to conduct trade framing and execution rehearsals, and contingency planning, so that if the favorable conditions continue to develop you will be able to take the trade in stride, with full preparation and risk management in hand.
Depending on the nature of your system and your edge, your stalking may take a different form, but it will always incorporate an early earning system, preparation planning and rehearsals if you want to achieve best results.
Patience and discipline are the essential qualities of mind that you will need to exploit your deep understanding of your edge.