The very first thing I analyze when I am creating my daily trading plan is the current market classification. The reason? Because, depending on which scholar you read, the market itself contributes as much as 50% of the return of individual stock gains/losses. It makes sense to me then that the most importnt single factor […]
Category: Uncertainty
I am not sure what i should put in this category
Professional humility and integrity
I had a rare privilege recently to attend an off the record briefing from a very high ranking general officer from an allied nation. He was reflecting on a career that spanned some very extraordinary times. He told one story however that really captured my attention. He was describing a situation in which he saw […]
Profitable short term trading tactics: monitoring money flow with Trim Tabs
Trim Tabs is a market research firm that tracks money flows into and out of mutual funds on a regular basis. They make their living providing money flow information to institutional money managers. Periodically they make their reports available to the wider public. A lot of people pushed the panic button in September. TrimTabs reported […]
Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Reversion to the Mean Trading Style
One of the time tested principles of market dynamics is the principle of the Reversion to the Mean. Over the long run, performance, volatility, price, relative strength: all of these measures mathematically require that periods of out-performance shall return to the mean. Naturally, this is not prediction, only an appreciation of how the math is performed. […]
A reflection on Problem-solving vs Decision-making
I see an important distinction between problem-solving as a method and decision making as a process. I see problem solving as an important component of decision-making but I see this distinction: decision-making seems to be the ultimate act of convergent thinking as a prelude to action. I see problem-solving as an analytical or intuitive process […]
Responsible skepticism in action
maybe the best description of skepticism in action I have read lately, from Robert Burton, M.D. at Salon, describing the questions he’s ask of candidates for President and why. A longish quote, but it’s that good. …Ideally, …(t)he candidates would be given questions, including a variety of “thought experiments” for which they could not be […]
Military officers: superstitious?
A new blog friend, Konrad Talmont-Kaminski, a naturalist philosopher in Poland, shares an interest in bounded rationality. He is thinking hard about superstition and the question was posed to me: Given the connection between stress and superstition the army must be a good place to run tests. Do you think the military are among the […]
A Bailout Alternative
Let investment banks go bankrupt, and their assets should be auctioned by the government as if they were people that had died intestate. Proceeds of the estate sale should go intot the general fund to be applied against the national debt The government should act as a caretaker to continue to receive current mortgage payments […]
Reflections on TRADOC Pam 525-5-500: Commander’s Appreciation & Campaign Design (CACD)
Research Question: What is the theoretical basis for the US Army’s proposed modification to the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) and what are the issues of concern for practitioners of the art of military decision making? Introduction and background: The United States Army’s Military Decision-Making Process stands the test of time as a method […]