When you find yourself in conditions of chaos, you discover that your robust systems are beginning to break down. They no longer perform as designed, simply because the volatility is greater than the system boundaries and feedback mechanisms can account for or moderate. Slack, buffers, filters and boundaries all work to dampen waves of change. […]
Category: Creativity
Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Understanding regional correllation
Based on our market classification scheme, there are 9 market states derived from 3 price momentum measures combined with 3 volatility measures. There is an important phenomenon related to the Bull-Sideways-Bear market states that can give you both insight into current conditions as well as a decisive market edge in risk management. The edge comes from […]
5 Things traders can learn from America’s greatest fighter pilot
COL John Boyd , USAF was a national treasure. One of the most gifted and effective fighter pilots of all time, he went on to revolutionize the way the armed services thought about command, control and combat effectiveness on the modern chaotic battlefield. He was instrumental in reforming the process by which the Department of […]
Profitable ETF Strategies: Market Valuations
The great Dr Brett Steenbarger writes: Based upon the replacement cost for assets of the S&P 500 companies, the index should be trading around 910 — roughly where it stands now. At historic market lows since 1920, however, indexes have tended to trade closer to somewhat above half their replacement cost. Our market classification tool […]
Reflecting on rewarding failure: markets
2 sets of financial institutions to think about, and the political leadership that’s deciding where to throw our money (1) Some made good loans and have lost no money in the recent meltdown. These are the community banks and credit unions that know their business and make good decisions in all market conditions (2) Some […]
A Reflection on Organization Development (OD)
Notes from a workshop interview with Dr David Jamieson: An Inquiry into Organizational Development (CTU Workshop Oct 11, 2008) What is Organizational Development? A philosophy about organizations, leadership and change. Also a collection of methods to help orgs manage change effectively that takes into account the human factors Tracing the OD roots. · […]
Profitable ETF Trading Strategies: Appreciating Anchors
The Nobel prize winning work of Kahneman and Tversky featured an extensive examination of the biases we routinely committ which drive our thinking away from the purely rational economic man theorized by traditional economics. One of the more important biases they examined was the phenomenon of anchoring. We anchor when we place a higher value […]
Profitable ETF Trading techniques: Understanding the importance of behavioral finance
We know that people pride themselves on their rationality and analytical skills. This is very evident in traders who invest a lot of psychological energy into their systems and personal discipline. And yet it is also very clear that psychology is extraordinarily evident in financial decisions. Time and again ,psychological pressures will over-rule rational analysis […]
Profitable ETF Trading Techniques: Hedging your long term portfolios with ETFs
The long term advantages of a buy and hold strategy are well known, and well supported by scholarly research. However, there are some simple, effective things you can do during confirmed bear markets that can bring you peace of mind, protect your long term positions, secure your retirement, and protect you against the most visious […]
Fear of failure? Failure is the state of nature; success is what’s surprising
Why do we fear failure? Why do so many things fail? What can we learn about failure that protects us from the shock of actual failure? Why do we persist as a species knowing the odds are stacked against us so badly in just about anything we do? I have been reading some commentary and […]